The Low Pay Commission has announced what it estimates the national living wage to be from April 2026.

The LPC’s central estimate for the national living wage, which is the minimum rate for people aged 21 and over, is £12.71, a 4.1% increase on the current rate of £12.21 per hour.

However, the commission said predicting this figure is challenging, and projected a range around the central estimate of between £12.55 and £12.86.

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The central estimate of £12.71 for next April exceeds the current “real” Living Wage of £12.60 (outside London), set by the Living Wage Foundation. The LWF’s next increase is expected in October.

The government has again asked the LPC to ensure that the NLW rate does not fall below two-thirds of UK median earnings for workers aged 21 and over. The commission should take into account the cost of living, inflation forecasts, the rate’s impact on the labour market, business and competitiveness, and carefully consider wider macroeconomic conditions.

Ministers today renewed their pledge to remove the discriminatory age bands for adults. Workers on the NMW rate for 18 to 20-year-olds received a 16.3% rise in April 2025 to £10 per hour. They look set either for another bumper increase next April, for the age threshold of the NLW to be reduced, or a combination of the two.

The government has asked the LPC to use consultation findings to assess how best to achieve this.

In seeking to narrow the gap between the NMW and NLW, the LPC should also take into account the effects on employment of younger workers, incentives for them to remain in training or education, and the wider economy.

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The LPC will submit its recommendations to the government by the end of October, with the new rates being formally announced on or just before Budget day.

The commission said its recommendations are not “purely formulaic”. The government’s remit requires it to consider economic conditions and balance a “multitude of factors” to make recommendations that “deliver for workers and businesses alike”. Therefore, it said, today’s estimated figures should be taken as indicative only.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “We are delivering on our promise to make sure every worker receives a fair wage. Fair pay which supports working families is integral to our Plan for Change, because when working people are properly rewarded with more money in their pockets, businesses thrive and our entire economy benefits.

“To ensure the right balance is struck between the needs of workers, business affordability, and the wider economy, the LPC is being asked to consult on several issues before recommending the new rates.”

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